| dc.description.abstract | Telecommunication is recognised as one of the basic needs of modern society and also as a key determinant of the pace of economic development. In India, telecommunications are still at a primitive stage and their performance has been unsatisfactory. Among the various factors responsible for this unsatisfactory state, those related to technology are crucial.
This study focuses on three instruments, namely, telephones, teleprinters and switching equipments and attempts to investigate into the problems of technology requirements, forecasts and assessment. More specifically, the objectives are: (i) to identify existing and future technologies, (ii) to perform technology forecasting and (iii) to select alternative and suitable technologies for India with the help of technology assessment. The methodology for the study is based on a combination of forecasting and assessment methods. To generate information, a Delphi survey was conducted in three rounds and in all there were 73 panellists involved in the study. The analysis was made at four levels namely, alternative technologies, alternative equipments, design technologies and manufacturing technologies for the three equipments. The probable occurrence of various technologies have been forecast and the impact coefficients of each one estimated.
For selecting alternative and suitable technologies for the Indian environment, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been used. The relevant parameters were identified with the help of literature and supported by the panellists. The Delphi data were used as inputs to the AHP. Attempts are made to develop the conclusions into the bearings on policy-making and planning for the telecommunications sector.
The results of the forecasting and assessment exercises indicate that by and large future technologies fare better than the existing ones on most criteria. The results identify technologies that may be indigenously developed and those that have to be imported in the context of the three equipments. Some of the conclusions underline the importance of component manufacturing technologies. The results of the study provide some direction towards the optimal use of resources in the telecommunication sector. Further, the study also figures out inadequacies in the candidate technologies thereby providing some clues for their rectification. The trends of demand, the profiles of costs, the requirements of manpower and the need for investment relating to the alternative technologies are investigated. | |
