A Systems approach for utility assessment of Energy resources in rural Applications

Abstract

The main objective of the thesis is to develop a systems approach to assess the utilities of alternative energy resources in the context of rural India. The methodology proposed includes those energy resources also which are at R and D stage of development, such as solar energy, wind power, bio-gas, etc. Thus uncertainties which are inherent in such an analysis are specifically taken into consideration. Since it is not possible to obtain an objective measure of 'worth of energy' the preferences of decision makers are used to develop utility indices. The thesis is arranged in two parts. Part I deals with the development of the methodology, and starts with an overview of the energy scene in rural India. The next chapter deals with the identification of eight attributes based on the social and economic considerations of rural areas. The importance-weights of these attributes are obtained through an opinion poll and due to their variations, these are expressed in terms of probability distributions against each attribute. Wind power is then taken as a pivotal energy resource and the established technology of its conversion into shaft work is made use of so as to provide the clue for generating alternative feasible energy resources. The utilities associated with various levels of attainment of each attribute are then discussed and these are next combined with the probabilities of attaining various levels of attribute with each alternative energy resource. This results in probability distributions of utility attainments for each attribute and for each alternative resource. Combining this with the probability distribution of importance-weights previously obtained, and using an additive rule one obtains the probability distributions of utility levels (or worth) for each alternative resource. The computation techniques make use of Monte Carlo method of distribution sampling. In Part II, the methodology is illustrated with an example. Since wind power has been shown to be feasible in irrigation water pumping, the energy requirements for this task are worked out. Taking these as bases the 'utility-attribute attainment level' maps are drawn for each attribute and for wind power and eight other alternative energy sources. Using Monte Carlo method, the 'combined utility (worth)-probability distribution' for each alternative energy resource is computed enabling one to rank appropriately the eight energy resources along with wind power.